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    <title>UTas ePrints - The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia</title>
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<meta content="This paper analyses the e¤ectiveness of the spread between short and
long term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and
whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the
adoption of a credible ination-targeting regime. We test whether predic-
tive power is sensitive to inclusion of other conditioning variables which
may be useful in forecasting GDP growth, and whether forecasting sig-
nicance is due primarily to the expected change in short-term interest
rates, the term premium, or a combination of the two. In a simple bivari-
ate model, results strongly suggest that the shift to a credible ination-
targeting regime has reduced the predictive content of the term spread.
However, extensions to this basic model tend to undermine this result.
The predictive power of the term spread in Australia may have been over-
sold." name="eprints.abstract" />
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<meta content="[1] Alles, L. (1995), The Australian term structure as a predictor of real economic activity, Australian Economic Review, (4th quarter), 71-85.
[2] Bernanke, Ben S. (2006), Reections on the Yield Curve and Monetary
Policy, Speech to the Economic Club of New York, March 20.
[3] Bordo, Michael D and Joseph G. Haubrich (2004), The Yield Curve, Re-
cessions, and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long-Run Evidence,
1875-1997.Working Paper 04-02. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
[4] Claus, Edda and Mardi Dungey (2006), Yield curve responses to monetary
policy in the presence of asymmetric information, Working Paper, ANU
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, March.
[5] Ellingsen, T. and U. Söderström (2001), Monetary policy and market in-
terest rates, American Economic Review, 91(5) 1594-1607.
[6] Fisher, C. and B. Felmingham (1998), The Australian yield curve as a
leading indicator of consumption growthApplied Financial Economics, 8,
627-35.
[7] Ford, B. and K. Taylor (2005), Recent developments in Australian bond
yieldsAustralian Treasury Economic Roundup, Spring, 111-120.
[8] Grenville, Stephen. (1997), The Evolution of Mone-
tary Policy: From Money Targets to Ination Targets.
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Conferences/1997/
Grenville.pdf.
[9] Hamilton, James D and Dong Heon Kim (2002), A Reexamination of the
Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread. Journal of
Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 340-360.
[10] Harvey, Campbell. R. (1988), The Real Term Structure and Consumption
Growth.Journal of Financial Economics, Vol 22. pp305-333.
28
[11] Karfakis, Costas I. and Demetrios M. Moschos (1995), The Information
Content of the Yield Curve in Australia, Journal of Macroeconomics,
17(1), 93-109.
[12] Karunaratne, N.D. (1999), The yield curve as a predictor of growth and
recession in Australia, Discussion Paper 255, Department of Economics,
University of Queensland, May.
[13] Lowe, P. (1992), The term structure of interest rates, real activity and
ination, Research Discussion Paper 9204, Reserve Bank of Australia, May.
[14] Macfarlane, Ian. J. (1998), Australian Monetary Policy in the Last Quar-
ter of the Twentieth Century.Shann Memorial Lecture, delivered at the
University of Western Australia.
[15] Newey, Whitney and Kenneth West (1987), A Simple, Positive Semi-
Denite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance
Matrix.Econometrica, 55, 703-708.
[16] Plosser, Charles. I and Geert. K. Rouwenhorst (1994), International Term
Structures and Real Economic Growth.Journal of Monetary Economics,
33, 133-155.
[17] Rudebusch, Glenn D., Brian P. Sack and Eric T. Swanson (2007), Macro-
economic Implications of Changes in the Term premium, Federal Reserve
Bank of St Louis Review, July/August 241-270.
[18] Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (2003), Forecasting Output and Ination:
The Role of Asset Prices, Journal of Economic Literature, 41 (3), 788-829.
[19] Wright, Jonathan. H. (2006), The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions.
Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC." name="eprints.referencetext" />
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<meta content="This paper analyses the e¤ectiveness of the spread between short and
long term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and
whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the
adoption of a credible ination-targeting regime. We test whether predic-
tive power is sensitive to inclusion of other conditioning variables which
may be useful in forecasting GDP growth, and whether forecasting sig-
nicance is due primarily to the expected change in short-term interest
rates, the term premium, or a combination of the two. In a simple bivari-
ate model, results strongly suggest that the shift to a credible ination-
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    <h1 class="ep_tm_pagetitle">The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia</h1>
    <p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><span class="person_name">Poke, Jacob</span> and <span class="person_name">Wells, Graeme</span> (2007) <xhtml:em>The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia.</xhtml:em> Discussion Paper. School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"></p><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a onmouseover="EPJS_ShowPreview( event, 'doc_preview_3301' );" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/2/DP2007_07_Poke_Wells.pdf" onmouseout="EPJS_HidePreview( event, 'doc_preview_3301' );"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" class="ep_doc_icon" border="0" /></a><div class="ep_preview" id="doc_preview_3301"><table><tr><td><img alt="" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/thumbnails/2/preview.png" class="ep_preview_image" border="0" /><div class="ep_preview_title">Preview</div></td></tr></table></div></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/2/DP2007_07_Poke_Wells.pdf"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF</span></a> - Requires a PDF viewer<br />219Kb</td></tr></table><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block">Official URL: <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/ecofin/home/dispap_by-year/2007.htm">http://www.utas.edu.au/ecofin/home/dispap_by-year/2007.htm</a></p><div class="not_ep_block"><h2>Abstract</h2><p style="padding-bottom: 16px; text-align: left; margin: 1em auto 0em auto">This paper analyses the e¤ectiveness of the spread between short and&#13;
long term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and&#13;
whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the&#13;
adoption of a credible ination-targeting regime. We test whether predic-&#13;
tive power is sensitive to inclusion of other conditioning variables which&#13;
may be useful in forecasting GDP growth, and whether forecasting sig-&#13;
nicance is due primarily to the expected change in short-term interest&#13;
rates, the term premium, or a combination of the two. In a simple bivari-&#13;
ate model, results strongly suggest that the shift to a credible ination-&#13;
targeting regime has reduced the predictive content of the term spread.&#13;
However, extensions to this basic model tend to undermine this result.&#13;
The predictive power of the term spread in Australia may have been over-&#13;
sold.</p></div><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" cellpadding="3" class="not_ep_block" border="0"><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Item Type:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Report (Discussion Paper)</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Keywords:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">GDP, Term Spread, GDP Growth in Australia, REPEC</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Subjects:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/340203.html">340000 Economics &gt; 340200 Applied Economics &gt; 340203 Finance Economics</a><br /><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/340208.html">340000 Economics &gt; 340200 Applied Economics &gt; 340208 Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)</a><br /><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/340401.html">340000 Economics &gt; 340400 Econometrics &gt; 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting</a></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ID Code:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">2508</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited By:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><span class="ep_name_citation"><span class="person_name">Ms Tracy Kostiuk</span></span></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited On:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">22 Nov 2007 12:33</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Last Modified:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">09 Jan 2008 02:30</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ePrint Statistics:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a target="ePrintStats" href="/es/index.php?action=show_detail_eprint;id=2508;">View statistics for this ePrint</a></td></tr></table><p align="right">Repository Staff Only: <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::View&amp;eprintid=2508">item control page</a></p>
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